Yesterday, Jeff Flake announced that he would be retiring from the United States Senate in 2018. This has derailed a post which I had been writing about the upcoming gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, but that will have to wait until next time.
Of course, this story is about more than just a Senator announcing his retirement; it is also a reflection on President Donald Trump’s relationship with the Senate Republican Party, as well as the moderates within his party.
Thus far, Flake is the second GOP Senator after Tennessee’s Bob Corker not only to announce their retirement in 2018, but also to couple the announcement with a scathing criticism of the President. Flake has long been a vocal opponent of the President, and yesterday said he could not be complicit or silent with regards to the actions of the President.
Jeff Flake’s retirement from the Senate is bad news for the Republicans on two fronts, both within Arizona and within the Senate. With his retirement, the Senate Republican Party further looks like it is being purged of Trump’s opponents; indeed, Flake expressed concern yesterday of his party drifting to the right at the expense of the moderates. Trump in turn has not been complimentary to Flake during his time in office – including referring to the Senator as “toxic” – while Flake was a loud voice of opposition to the perceived increase of Trumpification in both Republican Party and in the Senate.
Had Flake decided to run for re-election to a for a second term, he would have faced the risk of being challenged in the primaries by a pro-Trump GOP candidate. Trump had certainly expressed the wish to see Flake be primaried, and had strongly hinted atendorsing Flake’s foremost primary challenger, Arizona State Senator Dr Kelli Ward. Indeed, polling has shown Flake to be trailing Ward by a sizeable margin. Even if Flake ran again, there would be no guarantee of him winning his Primary, and Trump would probably relish the prospect of another supporter in the Senate – something he has few of – especially after the Primary defeat of Luther Strange in Alabama last month.
However, an open Senate seat in Arizona is still a huge cause of concern for Trump, and it would be premature of the President to take any pleasure in Flake’s retirement. In spite of Trump’s dislike for Flake, Republican in-fighting in Arizona, along with the candidacy of a pro-Trump senate candidate in an increasingly marginal state would open up Flake’s Senate Seat to being captured by the Democrats. Arizona’s longer-term trend towards the Democrats has been the subject of much discussion; Arizona was a state to watch ahead of last year’s Presidential election with great potential of being flipped to the Democratic column by Hillary Clinton, and is largely viewed as a swing state today. Flake, meanwhile, only won his 2012 election with a margin of three percent of the vote. With Flake’s retirement, the prospect of Arizona’s Senate seat being captured by the Democrats is only made more likely.
I don’t know if Jeff Flake will be the last Republican Senator to announce their retirement ahead of the 2018 elections, but he certainly will not be the last to step up his criticism of the President. The Senate Republican Party has long been a problem for Trump as there are few Republican Senators whom he can count on as allies, and Flake’s retirement presents a great risk to the Republican control of the Senate. The Democrats may be entering the 2018 Senate Elections on the back foot, but if the Republicans lose just three seats then they will lose control of the Senate to the Democrats. Such is Trump’s lack of support in the Senate that – even with fifty-two Republican Senators – the President can ill-afford to lose any Republican votes. One fewer Republican with whom he can try and work – if he can stop attacking them – will make his job much more difficult than it already is.
Hugh Evans 